Oscars: Best Actress — Cynthia Erivo and Karla Sofia Gascón Angle for Academy Awards History

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Best Actress Commentary (Updated Nov. 29, 2024): It’s the hottest awards race in town. The best actress race is heating up, with seasoned stars and rising talents vying for recognition.

Cynthia Erivo emerges as a strong contender for her portrayal of Elphaba in Jon M. Chu’s hit musical “Wicked.” A Tony winner for “The Color Purple” and an Oscar nominee for “Harriet,” Erivo is receiving raves for her take on the iconic “wicked” witch. Erivo’s chances will likely hinge on “Wicked’s” reception. A nom would make her only the second Black woman to receive two lead actress nods (after Viola Davis) and the second lead performance from a musical by a Black woman, following Dorothy Dandridge for “Carmen Jones” (1954).

Musical leads historically struggle for recognition, with Emma Stone’s win for “La La Land” (2016) as a rare exception. Erivo faces additional competition from Karla Sofia Gascón, who stars in Jacques Audiard’s Spanish-language crime musical “Emilia Pérez.” Gascón’s outstanding turn could make history as the first transgender performer nominated in any acting category. Notably, the Academy rarely recognizes two musical performances in the same year. The last instance was in 1964, with Julie Andrews (“Mary Poppins”) and Debbie Reynolds (“The Unsinkable Molly Brown”).

Beyond musical contenders, established names and former Oscar winners like Angelina Jolie in “Maria” and Tilda Swinton in “The Room Next Door” add star power to the race. Marianne Jean-Baptiste is also gaining traction for her role in Mike Leigh’s profoundly moving “Hard Truths,” hailed as one of the year’s most revelatory performances. Meanwhile, Saoirse Ronan has a strong showing with lead and supporting bids for two films: the recovery drama “The Outrun” and the WWII epic “Blitz.” Will either make the cut?

Newcomer Mikey Madison is making waves in Sean Baker’s “Anora,” with the goods to go all the way. Her layered performance, blending glamor and vulnerability, positions her as one of the top contenders. If Madison, 25, wins, she would become one of the youngest best actress winners in history, alongside Hilary Swank, who won at the same age for “Boys Don’t Cry” (1999).

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.